Bold Prediction: 2026 Projections Will Miss the Mark on Pitching Performance—Here’s Why
Spring has arrived, and with it, the thrill of live baseball is back! In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye. But here’s where it gets controversial: what if the data we’re seeing now doesn’t tell the whole story? And this is the part most people miss—environmental factors like wind and stadium design could be skewing our early-season insights.
Next week, I’m excited to share my 1-30 pitching development rankings, a project fueled by insights from over 50 MLB coaches and executives. Stay tuned for that deep dive! But first, let’s tackle something intriguing: why spring training data might be misleading.
This season, I’ve noticed several instances where the numbers just don’t align with my instincts. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, for example. Their four-seam fastballs looked disastrous in their first starts, only to bounce back in their second outings. Richard Fitts showed significantly more movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25, while Rays prospect Ty Johnson added 3 inches of vertical break to his fastball—without any changes in release or spin. What’s going on here?
While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind is a major culprit—or perhaps it’s just flawed data. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch’s trajectory by up to 4 inches. And here’s a lesser-known fact: stadiums without second or third decks have a different wind fingerprint, which can dramatically affect pitch movement. Spring training parks, with their unique structures, differ significantly from MLB stadiums, further complicating matters. Even Robert Stock, a noted baseball expert, emphasizes how air density impacts pitch performance on platforms like Stuff+.
Controversial Take: Until we see 2026 data from MLB parks, I’m skeptical of any dramatic changes in pitch movement without corresponding adjustments in release, spin, or arm slot. For now, assume pitchers are performing as they did in the 2025 regular season—unless proven otherwise.
Let’s shift gears to a pitcher who struggled last season: Patrick Corbin of the Nationals. In 2025, the Nationals relied heavily on fastballs, throwing them 55% of the time—the highest rate in MLB. This spring, however, they’ve cut that usage to just 41.7%, the second-lowest in the league. While we’ll need regular-season data for clearer examples, Corbin’s projections (~5.00 ERA in ~20 starts) make him a fascinating case study.
Corbin has slashed his four-seam and sinker usage to 40% this spring, down from 54% last season. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, with his cutter close behind at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The strategy? Reduce reliance on his four-seam fastball, which allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties.
Food for Thought: Are we underestimating the impact of environmental factors on pitching performance? Could 2026 projections be overlooking these variables? Let me know your thoughts in the comments—I’d love to hear if you agree, disagree, or have a different take entirely!
